John Carter is estimated at 30.6m for US Domestic Gross for the weekend, and 70M foreign. We are adding updates as new information becomes available. We’re putting the new updates at the top and pushing the older ones down, blog style.
Update 9PM PDT — Time now for the actuals, which will come in tomorrow afternoon
So the regular Sunday weekend reports are in, and they have John Carter at 30.6m with an estimated 8.5m for Sunday. For those of us rooting for JC to how legs, the next big moment will be on Monday when the actuals come in. If JC outperforms the Sunday estimate and is adjusted upward, that will be a good sign of a potentially strong hold, which is what the film clearly needs after a soft opening.
We shall see.
Update 6PM PDT — Hollywood Reporter: “John Carter Dominates Foreign Box Office”
The “second wave” of Box Office results reporting now has Hollywood Reporter changing its tone with an article entitled:
‘John Carter’ Dominates Overseas, Bagging $40 Million More Than Its Domestic Gross
Update 4PM PDT — Forbes Box Office Report puts the weekend performance of John Carter in proper perspective
After taking $30.6 million in its domestic opening weekend, the new Disney sci-fi adventure movieJohn Carter brought home an additional $70.6 million overseas as easily the highest-grossing film overseas, for a worldwide opening weekend of more than $100 million. While most media reports are focusing on the pre-established narrative that the film is a flop and critical failure, audiences are rating the film with a very healthy B+, some key film reviewers have enthusiastically embraced the movie, and the strong foreign receipt numbers indicate it will have a much better total box office run than many of the detractors seem to be giddily hoping for.
Update 2PM PDT — Screen Daily provides details of the foreign box office for John Carter
“The sci-fi spectacle opened in 51 territories on $70.6m led by a typically muscular Russian debut of $17.5m that made up for the film’s disappointing North American debut.
The worldwide tally stands at $101.2m thanks to this mighty international performance. The eternal challenge of recoupment looms large: the budget on John Carter reportedly reached $300m and it has already opened in all the top markets except China and Japan. Can China save the day?
Looking at the individual territories, South Korea returned $3.9m, France $3.8m, Australia $3.4m in first place, the UK $3.3m, Germany $3m, Mexico $2.9m, Spain $2.8m, Brazil $2.4m and Italy $1.6m. Remaining territories accounted for $26m.
There were several minor benchmarks, among them the fourth biggest Disney opening weekend in India and the tenth biggest launch for the studio in South Korea.”
Very strong 17,5 million debut in Russia.
Update 2PM — Breakdown of the International Numbers
UPDATE 11AM — The “Saturday Bump” in Perspective
John Carter went from 9.8m on Friday to 12.3M on Saturday — a 25.4% % “Saturday bump” that surprised analysts and is causing the more serious observers to inject a note of caution into their analysis of John Carter. Here’s why — following is a chart showing the Friday/Saturday performance of John Carter compared to the films that are most commonly used as comparables:
Here’s the same information in graphic form — where the significance is a bit easier to see the magnitude of the difference between John Carter’s Friday/Saturday performance and the Friday/Saturday performance of the comparables.
I also did some rummaging through Box Office Mojo looking for a film that opened at around 10m and had a Saturday bump in the 25% range. ( I excluded kiddie animation because they follow a different pattern than live action films.) The only one I found was:
Is JC headed for a “Blind Side” result? Most of the experts will say ‘no’. But the Saturday bump clearly differentiates JC from the usual set of com parables.
The next thing to look for will be the actuals and whether they get revised upward. JC has actually been climbing past the estimates steadily since Friday, when it was first reported that JC did 9.6 and Lorax 9.8 — only for that to be reversed when the numbers finally came in. Then Saturday exceeded expectations with a 25% bump. If the pattern holds true for Sunday, with the weekend total getting revised upward by $1m or more …..there will be reasons to say that the reports of John Carter’s box office demise are premature. Stay tuned.
UPDATE 10AM — More info on Foreign
The LA Times is reporting the foreign figures thusly:
Overseas, the movie fared better, grossing $70.6 million from 55 foreign countries including Mexico, Brazil and South Korea. The picture performed best in Russia, where it was the No. 1 opening of the year and had the biggest opening day in the country’s history.
UPDATE 9:30AM PDT — 30.6M for the weekend?
Well, some relatively good news. Box Office Mojo just posted the weekend estimate.
- Friday 9.8M
- Saturday 12.3M
- Sunday 8.5
- Weekend: 30.6M
The reason that’s good news is that it does indicate positive word of mouth. And given all the doomsaying in the media, its unlikely that it will have to be revised downward when the actuals come out.
To try and discern what word of mouth is doing – it’s useful to look at some of the comparable releases. “Prince of Persia” is the most commonly cited reference point and its first three days were 10.2, 10.3, 9.5 for a $30m opening. “Cowboys and Aliens” was 13.1, 13.2, 10.0. So in both cases, JC’s “Saturday surge” from 9.8 to 12.3 is a positive sign, and the Sunday 8.5 is at this point just an estimate and could be revised upward.
Will be back shortly with another update and some more comparables to help put this in perspective.
It’s been a pretty tough weekend around here ever since it became apparent about mid-day on Friday that, with unexpected critical hostility creating even more headwinds for John Carter, the film appeared headed for a 26-30m opening weekend. When the full weekend figures come out today, it could be as low as $26m or as high as $30m. But Box Office Mojo, the Bible in these matters, is already reporting $70m in foreign gross which is the first bit of encouraging news to be heard since the release on Friday. The problem with that is, Box Office Mojo is not yet providing a breakdown of what countries that number is coming from.
Still — there is an outside possibility that John Carter could, even if its US numbers end up in the 100m – 120m range, eventually be labeled sequel-worthy if foreign box office reaches 350-400M. That’s a tall order and the single actual datapoint we have thus far is 6.5m opening day in Russia– a record for that country.
So we wait. I will add to this as more information becomes available.