In another example of revisionist reporting, Hollywood Reporter who last week reported a probable write-down of $165m for Disney for John Carter, today reported that according to Janney’s Tony Wible, the film might be profitable, and median projections for the outcome show a write-down of $53m, less than a third of the massive $165m write down predicted last Friday.
Analyst: Disney’s ‘John Carter’ Write-Down ‘May Not Be as Bad as Feared’
Janney’s Tony Wible says a widely expected write-down on the expensive film may only reach around $53 million, and the movie could even end up being profitable in an unlikely best-case scenario.??
NEW YORK – Most on Wall Street expect Walt Disney to take a large write-down on big-budget sci-fi adventure John Carter, which opened with global box office revenue of slightly more than $100 million this past weekend.
Analysts previously surveyed by THR have mostly predicted a $100 million-$150 million write-down. ??But Janney Montgomery Scott’s Tony Wiblesuggested on Wednesday that things could well play out better for Disney.
“We have been tracking each of Disney’s films since 2005 in our film database, which helps us analyze the potential fallout from John Carter,” he wrote in an investor note. “While the Street is anticipating a large impairment on the film, our analysis shows that the impairment may not be as bad as feared if the film tracks in line with average performance ratios seen in 2011.”
Wible’s average-case scenario would lead to only a $53 million loss, while his best-case scenario actually shows a $53 million profit. He does, however, see a possible $180 million write-down in his worst-case scenario. “The best case is improbable,” Wible acknowledged. “However, our median case is not a stretch and would be an upside to expectations.”