Japanese Scientists Produce Mathematical Model to Predict Box Office Outcome Based on Blog and Social Media Activity
A Japanese scientist has published a study which contains a mathematical formula that can predict the box office performance of a movie based on the level of related activity on social networks and other websites before and during its release. This is particularly interesting to anyone trying to piece together what happened with the release of John Carter, and tracks with what our research into the John Carter release (which includes comparisons with the competition John Carter Faced, and comparisons with other Disney movies such as The Avengers and Pirates of the Caribbean) is turning up.
Following is a summary and link to a Hollywood Reporter article on the study, and after that, a link to the study itself, which is available online as a PDF.
From the Hollywood Reporter
TOKYO – Japanese scientists have devised a mathematical formula that can predict the box office performance of a movie based on the level of related activity on social networks and other websites before and during its release.The study, led by Professor Akira Ishii from the Department of Applied Mathematics and Physics at Tottori University, also found that when advertising was placed was more important than overall promotional budgets.
Collecting revenue data on 25 Hollywood and local movies released in Japan, including Avatar, The Da Vinci Code, Crows Zero and Always: Sunset on Third Street 3, the group compared it with advertising spending and online activity on social networks and blogs.
“We found a direct correlation between the number of social media postings about a movie on a given day, and the number of people who intended to purchase tickets,” Professor Ishii told The Hollywood Reporter.
“However, there was no direct relationship between the advertising spending and the purchasing intention. The timing of the advertising campaign is important though, with two weeks to ten days before opening being the optimum time,” explained the professor. Read the rest at Hollywood Reporter.
Click here to read a PDF of the actual study by Professor Ishii
It will be interesting to see how the formula works going forward. I wonder if they’ll be tracking any specific films in the near future.
Social media is becoming an increasingly representative indicator of popular interests.